MSNBC is already saying "It looks like VA will vote Republican for Governor",

[old mark]

and also speculating that the Blue Dog Dems will see this as a sign that they are at risk in 2010 from the middle Democrats and will withdraw any support from health care reform.
Those here who predicted a media anti Democratic frenzy tonight - it's already starting on MSNBC, and I'm sure Fox already has us buried.
I think I'll just read a book tonight-I can't stand to watch any more gloating Republicans.

FWIW, NJ is still "too close to call", but they are
predicting a GOP win there, anyway.

mark

[Captain Hilts]

1. VA Dems are sitting on their hands. They're just stating facts in the VA case. Sorry.

Young people, blacks and urban VA Dems just have little interest in turning out to vote for a rural, white guy.

[saracat]

3. So they would rather a GOP win? Says a lot about the state of the Democratic Party.

I guess issues really don't matter.

[Captain Hilts]

4. The AG Republican is really creepy scary, and many Dems just don't care. nt

[11 Bravo]

31. Cuccinelli is off-the-scale nuts. I can't believe this jackass isn't getting fucking buried!

I was born in the Old Dominion, and have lived most of my 58 years here. I love Virginia, but sometimes I can't fucking stand Virginians.

[arcadian]

11. It doesn't matter, VA Democrats are so conservative you might as well call them Republicans anyway.

It's the only way a Dem can be elected in this state/

[Captain Hilts]

15. It's great to be voting in Maryland now. nt

[Tim01]

8. All those people who voted for Obama can't be bothered this time.

Exactly as predicted.

[Captain Hilts]

10. Yep. Nightmares come true. nt

[saracat]

22. Yup.

[Mike Daniels]

39. People voted to make history and could care less until 2012 when he runs again

[SammyWinstonJack]

56. It will be worse then.

Anyway, Obama said he wouldn't seek re-election if his policies failed.

[SammyWinstonJack]

55. Consequences and all that jazz.

[Tim01]

61. The highly emotional democrats are going to be the undoing of everything.

Everybody knew their annoying hero worship of the potential first black president was just like a teenage girl at a rock concert.
Now that their attention span has run out they won't be heard from again except when they want to complain about some personal outrage. Obama will loose support for this alleged health care bill, but he simply can not fail to pass something, so an it will be gutted in favor of the badguys. It might be worse than nothing.
The republicans will declare the democrats are useless, or less than useless. And a lot of people will believe them.

I think things are going to get very ugly.

[SammyWinstonJack]

64. Right the fuck on!

[renegade000]

17. as a young Virginian

I personally have no problems voting for Deeds, especially given his opposition. It's sad our side has to wooed to the polls by superstars like Obama, when the Republicans will vote for anything under the sun as long as it spouts conservative talking-points.

[Captain Hilts]

21. That's exactly right. nt

[saracat]

25. Isn't that the truth.

[Warpy]

30. Thank you

Unfortunately, this is an off year election and a lot of other people just won't be bothered to turn out for a conservative Democrat versus a lunatic Republican. They're damned either way.

I fully expect the state to go for the lunatic. Those wingnut southern Baptist churches are still good at getting the vote out. With Dr. Dean gone as party chair, the Democrats will not be that good any more.

[Hippo_Tron]

46. They turned out for Tim Kaine and Jim Webb

I guess you just can't win em all.

[Captain Hilts]

53. Kaine and Kilgore were neck and neck and Kligore ran an ad that insulted voters, which

made it possible for Kaine to squeak in. They're all line drives in the box score. But that was a race that had high negatives on each side. Turnout wasn't that great.

Webb benefited from the high profile Allen was getting as the next GWBush. And then Allen's self-immolation.

Again, they're all line drives in the box score.

[liberal N proud]

2. The media can make any situation become the news they want

[Captain Hilts]

6. Sorry, in VA they're correct. Sometimes, the facts just suck. nt

[liberal N proud]

16. But this election is NOT a referendum on the future of either party

The media is trying to make this minor election about a national referendum on Obama and the Democrats and what will happen in 2010.

They stir this into that kind of hype.

[Captain Hilts]

24. No, it isn't. But the media ALWAYS says it is. Same old, same old. nt

[DearAbby]

5. You were surprised...the media will take this Off Election night

as the end of the Democratic Party, all that is left is the lone trooper's silhouette, against the darkened sky blowing "Taps".

[monmouth]

7. So, maybe Repubs will stay home, they've already won, right?..Hahaha...n/t

[Captain Hilts]

9. I wish. The Rep. Gov. candidate is bad enough, but he fades away compared to the AG. nt

[Neurotica]

28. I'm resting up for all the battles we're going to have to fight with "Cooch"

and McDonnell likely winning the election today.

I've warned my family that my period of recuperation (following several years of all-consuming local public policy battles) is over!

[Avalux]

12. These races are insignificant - not a referendum on Obama or Dems.

But for ratings, corporate media will 'create' a story out of them; evening coverage will have all the bells and whistles of last year's presidential election.

Take it all with a grain of salt.

[saracat]

19. Funny, when the vote went dem it was considered a referendum on Obama

and against the GOP. But when they lose ,it isn't? ???????? Obama carried VA. Guess they don't have to vote anymore.

[Lost-in-FL]

20. Republicans would make even cucumbers political.

They will run with this "insignificant" election for miles if they win.

[TwilightGardener]

26. I agree--local and state races are a reflection of those unique

populations and their concerns, prejudices, and politics--and it's a referendum on the candidates themselves. Sometimes you just don't have a very strong candidate running.

[southernyankeebelle]

13. When there is a democrat president in the white house they lose the race in VA for governor

and that has been happening since the early 70s. Since when did the democrats come off looking good. The so called liberal meeting takes the ques from fox new.

[HipChick]

14. Deeds ran a lousy campaign...

[Captain Hilts]

18. Most VA Dems do. Dems need to look at the creepy alternative and vote to keep them out.

That's the way it's usually been in VA.

Chuck Robb, John Warner, and Jim Webb got the backing of military Dems in Hampton Roads and Northern VA.

[Blue_Tires]

32. actually, Webb ran one of the smartest races I've seen in the state IMO

of course in that race the democratic party *really* wanted to chop off Allen before his star got too big, and the effort they put into it showed...there is almost no doubt that from the beginning the GOP leadership just wanted this year's race more...

[Captain Hilts]

35. Allen committed political suicide. That really helped. nt

[Hippo_Tron]

48. Allen said something dumb, Webb's campaign framed it very well

It wasn't the Macaca statement itself that killed Allen. Had it just been that Allen could have apologized and it could have been forgotten within two weeks. Webb's campaign effectively used that to frame Allen as a bigot and then all of a sudden more and more evidence pointing to that argument began to surface.

[Captain Hilts]

52. The press smelled blood in the water and went for Allen. They did some of Webb's work for him.

I ADORE Webb and don't care how he got in.

[Zen Democrat]

23. Here's my take on Virginia .... it's a long-term plus for the Dems.

First, Deeds is a terrible candidate, and way too conservative for the national party. If he's elected governor, I predict he wouldn't be a popular guy and would pull down the national ticket in 2012. Electing O'Donnell, on the other hand, would force him to show his right-wing bona fides and by 2012, Virginia would be sick of Republicans again.

The only reason Deeds won the nominatino is because Virginians didn't like a carpetbagger like McAuliffe waltzing into the governor's seat as if by divine right. Post nomination, Deeds has been running from the public option. I believe he said he's be for Virginia opting out.

I think Virginia will opt out of Creigh Deeds, instead. And then O'Donnell can play weatherman in the Republican/Teabagger Party.

None of the races today have a thing to do with President Obama. Not a one. If anything, Dems could spin a Deeds loss as a vote against hamstringing the healthcare public option! Democratic voters tend to stay home rather than vote for Lite Republicans.

[renegade000]

34. You may be right, but

you better send us in VA a big thank-you card in 2012 for putting up with four years of Taliban Bob (btw, his last name is McDonnell).

Oh...and a fruit basket would be nice as well.

[KamaAina]

49. Good point about McAwful

he split the NoVA Dem vote with Moran, allowing Duds Deeds to sneak in as the nominee. Result: A state that is directly across from our Nation's Capital will be run by fundie nutjobs. Heckuvajob, Terry!

[gkhouston]

27. Of course they are. The breathless story has to be, "are Dems in danger for 2010"

because they don't want to talk about the real story: the Republican party is coming apart at the seams.

[Freddie Stubbs]

29. Many VA DUers have already stated gloomy prognostications about the Gov race

[WI_DEM]

33. the "media" will say this is a referendum on Obama but...

it may be a referendum on 2010 but not on 2012. Point in fact:

Clinton lost a Dem congress in 1994 and was re-elected fairly easily in 1996.
Reagan lost seats in house and senate in 1982 and was re-elected in landslide in 1984.
Nixon lost seats in house/ senate in 1970 and was re-elected in landslide in 1972
Ike lost a GOP congress in 1954--won in landslide in 1956.
Truman lost Dem congress in 1946--won in upset in 1948

[Jennicut]

36. Deeds ran away from the Dems and Obama. He is a conservadem anyway.

But at least we were spared from watching Terry McAsswhipe from running an even worse campaign.

NJ is too close to call. Depends on how many votes the conservative, 3rd party candidate gets.

NY23 is a conservative district so who cares.

The CA race is being ignored since liberals will win it.

These races are too small a sample to predict anything and I could care less about them except I will feel bad for liberal Virginians.
The real races to care about are in 2010. They effect who controls the majority in Congress.

[harkadog]

44. NY 23 went for Obama 53% to 47%

How is that conservative?

[RedCloud]

37. I voted in McDonald's home town. Only 43 people had voted prior to 8:30.

But they never made this a referendum on Bush vs. Obama, lest they get their butts whipped.

Tim Kaine has not ended gridlock as promised. So what can you expect. Deeds was truly a dud.

[Mike Daniels]

38. Based on the polls they will vote Republican for governor

I didn't think this was a big surprise at this point.

McDonnell had a double digit lead and it still stood as such today. Northern Virginia (which Deeds needs in order for it to not be a blowout) isn't showing the margin for the Democratic candidate it's shown in the past and independent support for McDonnell is over 50%.

I understand the point in the media not implying that the vote is over but my polling station which is in Democratic leaning Fairfax County was deader than dead this morning and I don't think anyone thinks an upset is remotely in the works.

[optimal-tomato]

40. This IS a referendum on Obama.

He's slow-walked and obstructed everything he campaigned on. He's even dropped some of his promises altogether.

I don't know any liberals who are excited to vote for him again, and they sure as hell aren't going to turn out for someone more conservative because it would help Obama politically.

Obama won by promising to change fundemental truths about D.C. Corporations are still running the place. Obama is selling his soul on health care to pick up ONE REPUBLICAN senator.

Obama sowed the wind, and he'll reap the whirlwind in '10. If he doesn't grow some balls and start standing up for liberals, he won't get my vote again in '12.

[CBR]

42. So the 54% approval rating he has is less accurate than

your personal anecdote. I guess I will cancel out your vote since all of my liberal friends support him and plan to vote for him in 2012. Maybe they are not "true" liberals...

[Jennicut]

43. That is biased! Against people who refuse to believe in polls!

LOL

[optimal-tomato]

45. Job approval rating is not the only measure.

Job approval tends to be a generic loyalty test, not an actual measure of approval. Look at polls that measure "Obama's performance on..." and they are all lower than 50. But I'm not talking about approval, I'm talking more about enthusiasm. Obama voters don't seem to want to go out to elect one of Obama's allies (Corzine), even when he explicitly campaigns for them. I've never thought there was much reality behind the concept of coattails, but I was hoping that 2008 was going to be something of a watershed in a realignment. We may still see a realignment, but 2009 feels a lot like 2004 electorally.

I'm not calling anyone "true" liberals. I'm saying that since Obama got elected, his White House has spent more time fighting against the liberals who helped get him elected than the conservatives who are trying to stop his agenda. Look at where the White House is on the public option, on regulating Wall Street, on corporate tax evasion, lobbyists' role in policy making, on negotiating drug prices. They are not compromising these issues, they're surrendering them.

If you and your friends plan to support him no matter what he does, then that's fine. He'll probably get reelected (most Presidents are). But, if he continues to toss aside good policy because it conflicts with powerful corporate interests, I won't be supporting him or donating to his campaign again.

[Hippo_Tron]

50. Your argument is nonsense

Corzine was unpopular before Obama has even secured the Democratic nomination for President. The idea that he's in trouble because of Obama is just ridiculous. Yes midterm elections are, to a certain extent, a measure of the President's popularity because congressional races are about national issues as about local issues.

Off year gubernatorial elections, on the other hand, are about pot holes and property taxes and only very marginally have anything to do with the incumbent President's popularity.

[optimal-tomato]

58. Let me clarify my argument.

I've definitely overstated the extent to which this is a referendum on Obama. Each of these races hinge far more on the individuals running them. '10 will be more of a referendum on Obama, and I think Dems will probably fare pretty well (lose 10 or so seats in the House, break even in the Senate).

But today is a referendum on whether the 2008 election was a watershed realignment toward Democrats. It's a referendum on whether Obama created a political infrastructure that will serve Democrats for a generation. It's a referendum on whether the young people that are overwhelmingly predisposed toward Democrats will remain engaged, or become disillusioned.

Like I said, this election looks it's going to be a lot like 2004. The basic makeup of the electorate has not changed (if anything the far-right wackos are more powerful). Part of Obama's election was the idea that "the country is turning its back on the idiotic Bush policies", but that's not what I'm seeing right now. Obama's policies are marginally better than Bush's and the Republican Party is going so far to the right that they would call Bush a liberal. To me, it looks like we're going in the wrong direction. And that's why I'm not particularly enthusiastic about the prospect of voting for the generic Democrat.

[NeedleCast]

41. Might be an issue if it weren't true

what do you expect them to report in this case? That it's a close race? It's not. It's going to be a blow out.

[Stinky The Clown]

47. The Neanderthal has a huge lead over our shitty candidate. MSNBC is right about this.

[Captain Hilts]

54. VA Dems are used to voting for shitty candidates. nt

[mgcgulfcoast]

51. they said corzine will lose???

i think he will win

[old mark]

59. He outspent the 'Publican by several hundred percent - He might win yet.

Corzine is no prize, but Christie is really, really bad.


mark

[stillwaiting]

57. Headline in VA: BLUE DOG DEMOCRAT loses to Republican

THIS is the lesson that Blue Dogs better take to heart if they want to retain their seats.

I believe they already know this lesson, but are looking forward to the massive pay raise they are sure to get when they make the "official" decision to work for corporate interests when they lose their elections.

[Tim01]

63. You think a more liberal dem would have done BETTER?

I think they would have just gotten more clobbered.

A half way descent candidate of any persuasion would have been better than Deeds, but I don't think more liberal would have improved the vote count.

[wisteria]

60. VA always goes for the Rep. It was very unusual for the Dem to win the last time around.

That tiny area in NY is Repub anyway, so that is no surprise if if goes that way.
And,as for NJ, I still have hopes that the Dem will win.

MSNBC has to make excitement out of nothing to keep listeners tuned in.

[sofa king]

62. Well, I voted a straight-D today.

Rolled into my polling place about noon and was surprised to see a fair amount of people checking in. The weather is as fine as one can expect here in the Valley and I expect a lot of people will at least wander by the polls on their way home.

That's not necessarily a good thing, as aside from the city districts which are few and far between, the counties out this way are as Republican as Texas (and, perhaps not coincidentally, Sam Houston was born here).

However, there is an ace in the hole in that there are literally hundreds of thousands of freshly-minted Democrats who, because they voted just last year, aren't easily stricken from the books. I'm sure pollers don't consider many of these people to be "likely" voters, but with nice weather and lots of free time due to rampant unemployment, I hope for an unexpected surprise.